Background: the road to actual returns
On December 24, 2021, the Supreme Court (Hoge Raad) made a landmark ruling: the then-current Box 3 system violated property rights and the principle of equality. The system assumed taxpayers earned a high fictitious return, while reality was much lower, especially for savers.
As a result, the Tax Authority (Belastingdienst) had to provide 'rechtsherstel' (legal remedy) for the years 2017-2022. Millions of taxpayers received refunds or revised assessments.
The current system (2026)
Until a new law is in place, the bridging system applies per category. The table below is tax year 2026 and is in force now. Other assets: 6.00%. In 2025 that rate was 5.88%. Savings were 1.37% then, and 1.28% now.
| Category | Fictitious return 2026 | Tax (36%) |
|---|---|---|
| Bank savings | 1.28% | 0.46% |
| Investments (other assets) | 6.00% | 2.16% |
| Real estate | 6.00% | 2.16% |
| Debts (deductible) | 2.70% | -0.97% |
Calculation example: tax year 2026
2026 situation: €200,000 fully invested (no fiscal partner). Other-assets rate 6.00%, in force.
The new law: Wet Werkelijk Rendement (target 2028)
The Lower House approved the bill, but the Senate postponed the vote and the cabinet has outlined scenarios. The proposed Wet Werkelijk Rendement would tax actual returns. Whether and when that happens is still politically open.
What counts as return
- Dividends and interest payments
- Unrealised capital gains on shares/ETFs (annual)
- Rental income (net)
- Real estate appreciation (upon sale/realisation, not annually)
- Sale gains upon realisation
Compensating measures
- Losses can be offset against future gains
- Tax-free allowance remains
- Tax rate stays at 36%
- Transitional arrangements for existing positions
The compounding problem
The biggest disadvantage of the new Box 3 law is the effect on compound returns. Every euro you pay in tax on unrealised gains can no longer grow.
20-year projection: €200,000 at 7% return
* Indicative calculation. Use our calculator for your personal situation.
Impact by asset class
Savers
LimitedInterest is already a 'realised' return. At low savings rates, the tax is limited. Relatively little change compared to the current system.
Stock/ETF investors
HighHit hardest. Annual mark-to-market taxation on price gains, even without selling. Large impact on buy-and-hold strategy.
Real estate investors
Very highDouble levy: rental income AND property value increase are taxed. Real estate is illiquid, worsening the liquidity problem.
Private pension savings
StructuralNet wealth at retirement age significantly lower due to annual levies. Longer horizons are proportionally harder hit.
Legal uncertainty: the law may still change
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