The actual-return bill

The Netherlands introduces a new system assigning separate fictitious returns to savings, investments, and debts. Intended as a closer approximation of actual returns than the flat 4% previously used, the system ends up overtaxing savers during the low-interest-rate era.

The Supreme Court rules in the so-called Christmas ruling that the forfaitaire Box 3 system violates the right to property and the prohibition of discrimination under the European Convention on Human Rights. The ruling applies to taxpayers who filed timely objections.

The Tax Authority offers redress to taxpayers who had filed timely objections for 2017-2020. Those who had not objected are excluded - which later leads to further litigation.

Pending a permanent fix, the government introduces a temporary bridging system. Fictitious returns are now set per asset class based on actual market figures. Investments retain a relatively high forfait, but savings rates better reflect actual interest.

The Supreme Court extends the reach of the Christmas ruling: even taxpayers who did not object can claim taxation based on actual returns when the forfait is higher. This potentially affects millions of assessments and creates enormous pressure on the legislative process.

The government submits bill 36.748 (Wet Werkelijk Rendement Box 3) to the Lower House. The proposal introduces a hybrid system: wealth accretion tax on investments (including unrealised gains) and a realisation-based tax for real estate. Intended effective date: 1 January 2028.

A majority of the Lower House approves bill 36.748. In favour: SP, GroenLinks-PvdA, D66, Volt, PvdD, CDA and VVD. Against: 50PLUS, DENK, SGP, ChristenUnie, JA21, BBB, Groep Markuszower, PVV and FVD. A motion is also passed requesting the government to submit an alternative vermogenswinstbelasting proposal before Prinsjesdag 2028.

The Senate Finance Committee discusses the procedure for reviewing bill 36.748. A technical briefing with the Ministry of Finance is scheduled for 17 March 2026. Several Senate groups signal a critical stance.

Minister Heinen announces he is going back to the drawing board with the Box 3 bill. Following a wave of investor protests and critical Senate remarks, he announces revisions. What exactly will change is not yet known. The 1 January 2028 implementation date is now under pressure.

The Lower House passes a motion (ChristenUnie + JA21, with VVD support) calling on the government to include loss carry-back provisions in the revised Box 3 bill. If an investor suffers a loss in a given year, that loss should be offsettable against tax paid in the previous year.

The Senate Finance Committee holds oral consultations with State Secretary Eerenberg. Outcome: the cabinet confirms it is actively exploring a carry-back provision (offsetting losses against prior years), potentially included in Tax Plan 2027 via an amendment. A separate bill for start-up entrepreneurs is also in preparation. Eerenberg acknowledges the process was 'not optimal' but continues with regular parliamentary procedure. The 2028 effective date remains the official target.

The Supreme Court holds that taxpayers who did not (timely) object to Box 3 for 2017 through 2020 get no refund. For that group the Christmas ruling counts as new case law, so final assessments from before 24 December 2021 need not be reduced ex officio. On 17 July the Tax Administration confirms this with a collective decision.

A Senate majority (on a GroenLinks-PvdA proposal) postpones the vote until an announced cabinet amendment can be considered. Critics call the bill a messy halfway station. Junior finance minister Eerenberg refuses to withdraw it.

The promised amendment never arrives. In a parliamentary letter Heinen and Eerenberg set out four routes: improve the actual-return bill, pass it in 2028 then move to full capital gains around 2030, withdraw it and keep the deemed system until a later CGT, or accelerate CGT on financial instruments already in 2028. Costs run up to almost €20 billion. Banks and Eerenberg warn that a fast 2028 launch is a major risk. 2028 is no longer a hard start date.

Official short notes: Finance committee invites the minister and junior minister as soon as possible, but after the Lower House AFB, for oral consultation on Box 3 progress. Preference: Monday evening 5 October. Three pledges remain unmet (T04259 capital-gains timeline, T04261 counter-evidence budget effects, T04262 Budget Day updates). A long hold on 36.748 is not decided yet; 2028 remains uncertain.

Jetten, Heinen and Eerenberg propose a novelle on the actual-return bill: from 2028 capital-gains tax on all financial instruments (~90% of Box 3 assets with value growth), from 2030 the rest (NSW estates under review). Funding: tax-free wealth 2027 €30,846, tax-free result from 2028 €1,000 (was €1,800), other-assets forfait +1.5 pp, Box 2 top rate temporarily 29.2%, excessive borrowing in five €80k steps to €100k. Proposal, not law. JA21/SGP cool. Novelle must clear the Senate before 31 December 2026 for a 2028 start. Urgent Council of State advice; travel with the Tax Plan. On 5 October the Senate signalled it is willing to handle the novelle before Christmas, and on 6 October the Lower House asked for a higher tax-free result. Council of State advice is expected at the end of October.

AFB day 2: minister Heinen pledges to raise the small-saver threshold so fewer people are taxed (press: FD ~12:23; ND/ANP). Mainly touches the €1,000 tax-free result from the 29 Sep letter. No new official figure, no revised letter. Replacement funding and a parliamentary majority remain open. Day-1 context: ~€7.7bn gap, VVD/CDA pushback, JA21 compensation idea. On 5 October the Senate signalled willingness to handle the novelle before Christmas; novelle deadline 31 December remains.

Senate Finance committee oral consultation with minister Heinen and junior minister Eerenberg. According to FD, a Senate majority is now willing after all to handle the Box 3 novelle before Christmas, with worries about time pressure, implementation and crypto rules. Eerenberg says the margins are 'in the order of days'. Urgent Council of State advice is expected at the end of October, after which the novelle goes to the Lower House in early November. Funding is still open. Being willing to move fast is not the same as voting yes.

The Lower House adopts motions asking the cabinet to raise the €1,000 tax-free result from the cabinet letter (Van Eijk et al. no. 11, Grinwis et al. no. 33) and to find other funding that does not land on small savers, such as a lower Box 2 rate or tackling paper gifts. A motion not to halve the tax-free allowance (no. 29) and a motion to abolish Box 3 (no. 22) fail. Motions are requests; a new figure still has to come from the cabinet. First Tax Plan committee session on 12 October.